Facing the Backdraft

Climate analyst Barry Saxifrage explains how the CO2 from fires is adding significantly to greenhouse gas accumulation. His charts show the dramatic increase in Canadian wildfires:

"Wildfire is now incinerating four times more forest carbon than during the 1990s. In addition to the surging immediate threats of choking smoke, wanton destruction and disrupted lives, rising wildfire is also pumping billions of tonnes of forest carbon into our atmosphere, intensifying long-term climate breakdown. ... It is piling up in an ever-thickening blanket in our atmosphere that will overheat generations to come. The extra heat being trapped by humanity's CO2 now equals the explosions of 400,000 Hiroshima atomic bombs every day. And rising. ...

Wildfire emissions totalled 30 million tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2) [in 1990]. The much taller bar on teh far right shows that this year's wildfires have already burned massive amounts of forest. Emissions are around 500 MtCO2 so far, with many weeks of fire season still ahead. ... It is tempting to think that this current level of wildfire is our 'new normal.' But it's going to keep getting worse until we take our foot off the wildfire accelerator. ... Levels will keep rising until we stop the primary source of them, fossil fuel burning. ... 'It ain't rocket science -- when it's hotter and drier fires burn more easily and more explosively.' ... Burning fossil fuels burns Canada's forests."

He added green bars to the graph to show how much forests used to act as a carbon sink. It was enough to recapture the additional CO2 emitted by fires and more. 

Fires are a huge source of CO2 that didn't exist like this before. Their "emissions now average more than all the emissions from Canadian cars, trucks, ships, planes, buildings and electricity generation--combined" even rivalling the biggest impact to forest, logging.

"Overall, Canada's managed forest has lost four billion tonnes of CO2 since 1990. All that CO2 was stored in teh forest. Now it's up in the atmosphere. These forest carbon losses are new. ... This one-two punch of more CO2 emitted by wildfire and less of it being removed by post-fire recovery is accelerating the climate impact. ... The big tipping point was 2002. In that year, and every year since, Canada's managed forest has lost carbon to the atmosphere. That's 22 straight years of annual CO2 emissions. This clearly isn't a problem caused by a few freak years. It's an every-year crisis. ... This accelerating flood of CO2 pouring out of Canada's managed forest now dwarfs the fossil fuel emissions of most nations."

"Europeans have collectively reduced their climate pollution by 36% since 1990 ... using climate policies that reduced emissions across every sector in their economies. ... Since they enacted [UK's Climate Change Act of 2008], the British have reduced their emissions by 40%."

Unfortunately, Carney might not be the guy who will curb climate change. Mark Bourrie wrote about some concerns with his trajectory, calling him "a tree hugger with a chainsaw": 

"As soon as he was sworn in, Carney stripped away Poilievre's best slogan by killing the retail carbon tax in a stunt that looked a lot like Trump's executive-order photo ops. ... Environmentalists are worried about Carney's push for east-west trade infrastructure, which might include petroleum pipelines; Indigenous leaders fear that infrastructure might be bulldozed through their territory. ... Carney pledged to increase Canada's military spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 ... Tanks or climate change research? Clean water for Indigenous communities or warships?"

Time will tell. 

Losing Our Democracy in Ontario

For a little while, Trump's mess made me über proud to be Canadian, and even a little bit okay with Ford. But that was short lived! 

If anything, the US disaster has been a distraction for us as the provincial majority government pushed through several anti-democracy policies. They're using Trump's trade war to try to justify these policies, but we all know that's bullshit. 

Bill 33: Supporting Children and Students Act, which passed second reading yesterday. It will give Ford more control over school boards and universities and colleges. It could mandate police presence in schools and mandate university admission policies. From OPSEU President JP Hornick:

"Stripping away access-focused admissions pathways threatens the socio-economic mobility of entire communities. They want to surveil and criinalize our kids from a young age and then make it even harder to access post-secondary education later on in their academic careers. Ontario's future depends on an inclusive education system, not one that intentionally keeps people out. ... It is clearly intended to defund these services in our colleges."

Orange Monday or MAGA Monday?

Time will tell which name will go down in history books. But April 7, 2025 will be up there with Black Monday (October 19, 1987) and Black Thursday (October 18, 1929).

Trump wants everyone to just calm down, already, in his own ever-weirdly worded way. But he said this just before millions of Americans died of Covid, too. 

So, Tariffs, Amiright?

Round of tariffs for all, except Russia.

I have a friend in the states who isn't worried about any of this stuff. "Big businesses will stop it," she says. She expects 3-6 months of wavering, max, then corporations will push back enough that things will settle down. It's all just posturing. She has a lot of faith in the markets and in this administration's willingness to be pushed. But okay. Maybe.

I suggested the tariff threats have already changed everything, and she was surprised to hear about American products being taken off the shelves or indicated in some way to help us avoid purchasing them, and that travel between our countries is down 70%. We don't want American stuff anymore, and we'll avoid it as much as we can. 

One analogy that rings true: 

"Imagine one of your friends points a loaded handgun at your face, and then immediately goes, 'nah man, just joking lol'. No matter how short a time that was, you're still not gonna ever trust that motherfucker again. It will have permanently altered your relationship. Anyway, tariffs on penguins."

Public Health Needs to be Independent

 David Fisman posted a thread yesterday about problems when big money gets involved in public health.

"During Covid, I experienced firsthand how political pressure twisted science—and nearly destroyed reputations. A short thread on conflict-of-interest theatre, redacted emails, and lessons we still haven’t learned. 

In January 2021, I was publicly accused by Ontario’s Premier of having a conflict of interest due to paid consulting work I did for the Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario (ETFO). The suggestion was that I’d influenced school closure advice. What wasn’t shared? Internal emails—later released via FOI—show this was a manufactured controversy. The allegations didn’t reflect what officials knew privately. And that story deserves to be told. 

On Jan 26, 2021, Heather Watt (Chief of Staff to Health Minister Christine Elliott) drafted messaging about the “conflict.” She sent it to Steini Brown—my dean at the University of Toronto, and chair of the Science Advisory Table—for input. Steini replied carefully. He pushed back, noting: “There’s no direct line between David working for ETFO, us giving you advice to close schools, and you following it.” His reply was initially redacted in FOI responses. Journalist Jack Hauen appealed the redaction—and won. He sent me the full, unredacted email when requesting comment. It showed that the internal view did not support the public claims being made about me. Steini also wrote: “He is merely one of dozens of scientists working on a volunteer basis and does not speak for the group in his work for ETFO.” That’s a very different story than what was spun publicly. 

Disappearance of the Rule of Law

Charlie Angus talked about Canada-US relations on Meidas Touch: "We're thinking, if we go down the road with this regime, we're talking about the disappearance of the rule of law, and that's deeply offensive to us." 

Rule of law goes at least as far back as the Magna Carta over 800 years ago. It means that everyone is under the law, including the king. Even a president! Even in the US they overtly seek "the government of laws and not of men," and make that clear in the 5th and 14th amendments. John Adams feared the "vulgar rich": To ennoble the new regime, the most talented must be made to serve their country, rather than their selfish desires. Adams thought offering fancy titles would satiate their quest for power, taking a page from Rousseau: "the role of illustrious offices and signs of rank in countering the popular passion for material wealth." But that's not enough for this crew. They have no respect for rule of law. 

Human rights will always be pushed by those who hope to exploit a situation or group of people, and we need to be there to push back. Over and over and over again. I used this 5 minute explanation of the history of human rights in my grade 10 civics classes:

The important bit is at the end, that we have to KEEP fighting for our rights. There will always be people trying to amass power and override the law, and we have to be ready for that, en masse, to stop it. 

Monbiot on Capitalism vs Commerce

 George Monbiot wrote today, 

"One of capitalism's greatest successes is to shut down our imaginations. With the help of its favoured tools - neoliberalism and fascism - it persuades us that 'there is no alternative'. Our first task is to re-ignite our moral imaginations and name our alternatives. I cannot count the number of times I've been told, 'if you're against capitalism, you must be a communist,' or 'you must be a feudalist'. In fact, as in my case, you can be fiercely oopposed to capitalism, to communism, and to feudalism. It helps if you undertstand what capitalism is. This means recognizing that it's true nature is endlessly disguised. It's a distinct economic system which arose around 600 years ago. In The Invisible Doctrine, we give this definition:

Capitalism is not the same as commerce. The Dutch VOC and the British East India Company were not trading with the people whose land, labour and resources they seized. Nor were the slavers in the Caribbean and the Americas. Nor is investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) commerce: nations are forced to surrender resources to corporations or pay compensations. Nor is conversion of rainforests to cattle ranches or  extraction of deep-sea minerals. No one's freely trading or being properly remunerated in such cases. Yes, colonial looters might then trade the wealth they steal: capitalism can intersect with commerce, and can overrun commerce, but it is not the same. 

Bearing Witness

 Brandon Friedman wrote an important thread about what we do now. Here it is in full:

"This is a German woman being marched past the bodies of Holocaust victims. After World War II, it was common refrain among German civilians: They just didn't know. For that reason, many were forced by Allied troops to bear witness. Like this. 

I bring this up because fascism is now here, in America. 

If you're thinking, "but it doesn't feel like fascism, nothing in my life seems amiss," then congratulations, you have discovered what fascism is like. 

The Flies Have Conquered the Flypaper

Steinbeck's The Moon is Down was first published in 1942, before he was sent off to fight. As a journalist, he enlisted in order to be in the thick of thing to write with authenticity. This may be a book for our times, unfortunately. It's about a town invaded by enemy forces.

It's a short read, but also captured fairly well in the movie, made just the following year, with Henry Travers (Clarence in It's a Wonderful Life). Of course it's a hopeful read as the town fights back, but it's also terrifying for what they endure. 

 

And then I watched Shame, which might be a more realistic depiction of what it is to live with the beginnings of invasion as sides get confusing and people betray one another.  

Possibly I'm looking for instruction of how to be when another country threatens invasion, what it looks like to be courageous in the face of real danger, but I may well be just torturing myself! I'm also reading Byung-Chul Han's The Spirit of Hope as a healthy antidote to the gloom.

Never Again?

All this tariff talk is provoking a recession, which seems to be a feature, not a bug. As the economy falls, companies go bankrupt and are cheap to take over by the wealthy. The very rich will be able to take advantage of desperate times to buy businesses and property, and then are even further ahead when (or if) the economy rebounds. More power. More control. More stuff. The suffering of the citizens is not a concern. At all. 

This entire scheme was kick-started back in 1971 by the Powell Memorandum. Chomsky and Chris Hedges have been talking about this forever. And, of course, Ralph Nader. It's the precursor to disaster capitalism. Supreme Court Justice Lewis Powell wrote a memo attacking "extremists" like Nader who was doing things like trying to get cars to add seatbelts to improve traffic safety. The Memorandum is a push to allow unfettered capitalism without any regulations because, as far as Powell was concerned, businessmen really own the country. They pushed for more business involvement in colleges and universities way back then.  

A couple days ago, Senator Chris Murphy clearly outlined the corruption in the White House. It's all out in the open BECAUSE THEY CAN. Like in Russia, few in positions of power dare call them on it. 

"Trump and Elon Muck and their billionaire friends have engaged in a stunning rampage of open public corruption. It's not fundamentally different than what happened in Russia. These are efforts to steal from the American people to enrich themselves, and their strategy is to do it all out in the open. ...  

On Weaponizing Empathy

Lots of people struggle with boundaries; luckily there are many little sayings along the lines of "not my circus, not my monkey" that help people remember not to get worked up about someone else's problems.

It's a useful strategy to notice when you're getting too invested in other people's lives. It's really handy to be able to let go of how people perceive you or whether or not they like you. We have a strong need for belonging, and we can sometimes be easily guilted into taking on the burdens of others just to get a little taste of perceived connection. So, sure, if it's not your fault or responsibility, then it's not your problem. 

There's a "Let Them" poem (by Cassie Phillips) that blew up then got somewhat plagiarized into a book deal for Mel Robbins. (I actually only clicked on that video because I somehow thought it was about the very funny comedian Mel Giedroyc! The thumbnail looked a bit like her, and, apparently, I didn't actually know her last name! But then I got hooked by the content.) Robbins' daughter used the phrase "let them" to talk her mom out of nosing in to her son's plans for prom. This is a great philosophy to shut down the busybodies in your life, but I can't imagine those two words flushed out into an entire book, and you could get this, and so much more, from books on Buddhism or Stoicism. I'm clearly not the target audience.

Neither Lazy nor Stupid, but Unfortunately Conned

Well, this sucks. At times like this, like when Mike Harris got in a second time, I think of Rousseau's bit, "When the opinion that is contrary to my own prevails, this proves neither more nor less than that I was mistaken, and that what I thought to be the general will was not so," and how much I disagree with that sentiment. I don't believe this is really what Ontario wants.

Data from Elections Ontario

Conservatives and Liberals were up a bit, and a few more people voted than last time despite the weather warnings in some areas, yet even with the consistency with the last election, I still can't believe people want the type of government that dismantles healthcare and iconic structures and natural habitat so openly and vividly: 

Democracy Requires Participation

Just 18% of registered voters was enough to give Ford a majority back in June 2022 because so many people stayed home. The polls predict another Con win, but screw the polls! Get out and show them they're wrong!! 

Last time, there was slim pickings all around. This time we have much better choices. Social media and mainstream media has been almost completely taken over by the billionaire class, feeding bullshit to the masses, and Ford is all in with Musk. If Ford wins this time, I think it will be because of people believing their lies because it's all they see. So tell your friends and neighbours about his actual shenanigans. He's not the man of the people; he's in it for himself. 

Some recent highlights:

CANADA-US 

Check out Ford's "strategic alliance" with the US titled Building Fortress Am-Can: He plans to "Pursue enhanced collaboration between Canadian cyber security infrastructure and US counterparts," which includes designating areas of Canada with critical minerals as regions of strategic importance to the national security of Canada and the US. 

If we don't want to make Canada in line with the current US policies, we have to get Ford out of power. 

Canadian Broadcasting In Crisis

Does saying "Jeeeezus" and "oh my God" over and over as I scroll through the news count as praying? 

It's not just all the bizarre appointments in the US that will chase out any competent people leaving an empty husk as a gift for Russia - or something like that - but the CBC feels compromised. It's been a bit of a problem here and there for decades, but this latest mess of a "balanced" call-in show on Canada becoming the 51st state with flippin' Kevin O'Leary and David Frum hosting, feels like it's no longer Canadian at all. People are calling them, and the producers Quislings, and I think that word will become more and more commonplace. CBC News reported on the backlash and asks that we pretty please watch the show to make up our own mind. No thanks.

What a Failing Democracy Looks Like

Rachel Gilmore lived in Tunisia just before the fall of their democracy, and has important markers for us to notice: 

"The canary in the coal mine for a failing democracy are society's most vulnerable members. If people who are low income or are members of vulnerable groups are sounding the alarm, you should listen. ... Democracy is not something you have, it's something you do." 

Like Al Capone in a Syphilitic Period Trying to Do a Shakedown

A couple videos not to be missed:

Charlie Angus on Trump - full transcript below:

Angus: "What President Trump also said is that the tariffs will not come off until we give up our birthright and our sovereignty to a convicted predator. That is never, ever, ever going to happen. So what Donald Trump has done is unify Canadians in a manner I've never seen before. And while Americans may be waking up to the tariffs, we've already started the pushback. People in Kentucky, did you know that your biggest export market for spirits is Canada? We just took everything off the shelf. California, did you know that the largest purchaser of wines in the world is the liquor agency in Ontario? You don't get any more California wines in Ontario. Elon Musk, our premier just canceled a $100 million deal today. Canada is getting ready for this fight because we know that he's erratic, may be this week, may be next week, but there's a huge actual boycott going on. Grocery stores, ordinary people, people stopping on the streets. Nobody is buying anything that comes out of the United States right now, because we understand this is a threat to who we are as a nation." 

Staying Informed and Sane

 Who I'm reading to get through this mess (among many others):

#1 - Timothy Snyder

Yesterday's piece, "The Logic of Destruction," should be read in full, but here are some important bits:

"The parts of the government that work to implement laws have been maligned for decades. Americans have been told that the people who provide the with services are conspirators within a 'deep state.' We have been instructed that the billionaires are the heroes. All of this work was preparatory to the coup that is going on now. ... The oligarchs have no plan to govern. They will take what they can, and disable the rest. ...They will have bet against the stock market in advance of Trump's deliberately destructive tariffs, adn will be ready to tell everyone to buy the crypto they already own. ... The economic collapse they plan is more like a reverse flood from the Book of Genesis, in which the righteous will all be submerged while the very worst ride Satan's ark. ... 

Trump's tariffs (which are also likely illegal) are there to make us poor. Trump's attacks on America's closet friends, countries such as Canada and Denmark, are there to make enemies of countries where constitutionalism works and people are prosperous. As their country is destroyed, Americans must be denied the idea that anything else is possible. ... [These oligarchs] are possessed, like millennia of tyrants before them, of fantastic dreams: they will live forever, they will go to Mars. None of that will happen; they will die here on Earth, with the rest of us, their only legacy, if we let it happen, one of ruins. They are god-level brainrotted." 

So, yikes! It doesn't look good for us here no matter how you slice it. As long as Trump is in power, Canada is in danger. Snyder calls for Trump and Vance to be impeached, but so far I don't see many standing up to him beyond Sanders and AOC. That's not enough. Beyond that, he calls for government workers to keep working until officially fired to slow the process down. Muddle up the works as long as possible. 

#2 Heather Cox Richardson

Wading Through the Fetid Swamp

Charlie Angus is on a role. The NDP MP has a book excerpt in The Walrus explaining the rise of neoliberalism starting from Reaganomics.     

The rules of the neoliberal game advise to take advantage of or create a crisis in order to shrink governmental oversight, bust any strikes, lower marginal tax rates so the wealthiest pay very little, reduce or obliterate corporate regulation or allow dubious self-regulation, and privatize the shit out of public services. Naomi Klein did a great job explaining it all in The Shock Doctrine, which he mentions. 

Mr. Angus says, 

"The crisis of the 2020s is something different than a lingering cultural stasis. The reality is that the political, environmental, and economic forces unleashed in the 1980s have finally caught up to us. . . . Operation Break the Working Class has created a generation of billionaire oligarchs form the stolen wages of the American working class. . . . To find our way out of this mess, it is necessary to confront the false history of the 1980s. Historical amnesia is not accidental--it is a political construct. If you scratch the sheen of '80s nostalgia, the underlying socio-economic fractures are readily apparent. These contradictions in the popularized narrative constitute a dangerous memory."

Trump's Tariffs

Yesterday Trump threatened, 

"'On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders,' he wrote on social media, complaining that 'thousands of people are pouring through Mexico and Canada, bringing Crime and Drugs at levels never seen before,' even though violent crime is down from pandemic highs. He said the new tariffs would remain in place 'until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!'"

Lots of people are starting to understand how these tariffs will play out for them. Six years ago, Ben Stein revised his Ferris Bueller bit to teach more of the lesson. Tariffs imposed in the 1930s made the depression worse for the US.

Some people, like Anonymous, think,

"Mexico and Canada are the biggest trading partners for the US. Starting a trade war with the people who provide nearly half the food or water you consume is suicidal."

Then, six hours later, they added, 

"Trump and Musk have already stated that their plan is to crash the economy. Picking a trade war with China, Mexico, and Canada will do that. They have no plan to restore the economy. This is how they plan to cull part of the population and pummel the rest into subservience."

I can't help but wonder if it's a provocation to get just enough of a reaction that would enable him to justify (weakly and likely illegally) taking measures against Mexico and Canada in some throwback to Manifest Destiny. He's already looking at a "soft invasion" of Mexico. The fact that he is also demonizing Canada points to the start of a movement towards, I believe, coming for our water and other resources. Is that what Musk meant when he said a Trump win would bring temporary hardship?? Trudeau is hoping the premiers stick with him in a united front, but several of them might be more interested in the IDU than Canadian interests, in a shift to "authoritarian populism," a weird kind of oxymoron.

I have no concrete ideas about any of this, but I do believe greedy people don't like when anyone has something they don't have. They have to have all the things. The rest of us are collateral damage.

On Trust and Justified Disgust

Pete Buttigieg gave a great interview last week. He believes that "in moments like this, salvation really will come from the local and state levels. . . that aren't captive to some wacky ideological project. They're just focused on getting things done." Then at 1:05, he addresses the issue of trust when asked what more he would add to his 2020 book: 

"One theme that was in the book that I think we need to spend a lot more time thinking about is how we get information. I wrote up a little about these studies on vaccine misinformation and the fact that Russia didn't just push anti-vax messages. Often what they would do is to push an anti-vax message and a pro-vax message at the same people because the point was just to get you at each other's throats. I think a lot of that's happened recently. Yes, they had a preferred presidential candidate, but their biggest objective wasn't to have for one side to win, it was to break down our trust. It turns out all the nuclear weapons in the world are not capable of doing what this information vector into our society did with shocking efficiency. And we're behind. I don't just mean those who are on my side of the political spectrum are behind. I think America's behind.