Friday, June 23, 2023

On the Importance of Solidarity with the Covid Cautious

This is all from Conor Browne following a bit of in-fighting online: 

I consider the unmitigated transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to be the single most important risk facing humanity. Climate change is, of course, a close second. Both of these are systemic risks - that is to say, they are risks that involve the breakdowns of entire systems. However, and considering only the risk faced by SARS-CoV-2 from this point, it is important to note that while unmitigated transmission is a systemic risk, it is also an individual risk; infection is a significant risk to the health of the person infected.  
So, SARS-CoV-2 is both a systemic and an individual risk. Mitigating the latter involves personal NPIs: respirator use etc. Mitigating the former (in the absence of high-efficacy vaccines and/or therapeutics) involves the adoption of societal-level interventions (most obviously, the mass adoption of indoor air filtration), which, crucially, requires policy change from political institutions. This in turn means - and this is vital - that people like me have to be able to 'sell' the policy. This involves convincing political and business leaders of the value of investing significant amounts of money. 
Investment requires a demonstration of return: that is to say, that not only can environments like schools and restaurants be made considerably safer, but also that this increased safety will lead to medium-term cost saving / profit. The entire argument for improving indoor air quality is based on making the indoors like the outdoors in terms of risk of viral transmission. Not eliminated, but significantly reduced. That is the art of the possible. This process - convincing policymakers to effect political change through institutions - is currently the only route we have to mitigate the systemic risk posed by SARS-CoV-2. Remember - at this point it is impossible to eliminate this systemic risk. It can only be significantly reduced. 
My point: risks intersect in unexpected ways. Insisting on respirator-wearing everywhere (outside and inside) - which is an excellent mitigation of individual risk - also diminishes the core argument (improving indoor air quality) for mitigating systemic risk. Also, much as SARS-CoV-2 is a highly significant individual risk, it is obviously not the only individual risk any given person may face in their life. My feeling is that we - the Covid-cautious - are in this for the long haul, and a general and compassionate recognition of these unpalatable facts is necessary. Why? Because we form the core of the pressure group that will continue to push for mitigation of systemic risk. If we fracture, that itself is a significant risk because it means systemic risk mitigation is less likely to occur. So, I implore you, think strategically, compassionately, and pragmatically going forward. 

No comments: