So, Tariffs, Amiright?

Round of tariffs for all, except Russia.

I have a friend in the states who isn't worried about any of this stuff. "Big businesses will stop it," she says. She expects 3-6 months of wavering, max, then corporations will push back enough that things will settle down. It's all just posturing. She has a lot of faith in the markets and in this administration's willingness to be pushed. But okay. Maybe.

I suggested the tariff threats have already changed everything, and she was surprised to hear about American products being taken off the shelves or indicated in some way to help us avoid purchasing them, and that travel between our countries is down 70%. We don't want American stuff anymore, and we'll avoid it as much as we can. 

One analogy that rings true: 

"Imagine one of your friends points a loaded handgun at your face, and then immediately goes, 'nah man, just joking lol'. No matter how short a time that was, you're still not gonna ever trust that motherfucker again. It will have permanently altered your relationship. Anyway, tariffs on penguins."

We knew it was coming, and we know what the effect will be for most of us, yet it seems to be an unstoppable force. 

Heather Cox Richardson's piece yesterday quotes a collection of people calling the tariffs, 

"erratic ... Never before has an hour of Presidential rhetoric cost so many people so much ... the largest peacetime tax hike in US history ... the numbers he is using are bonkers ... extraordinary nonsense ...  dumb calculation...." 

Then she quotes Senator Chris Murphy, 

"The tariffs make no economic sense because 'they aren't designed as economic policy. The tariffs are simply a new, super dangerous political tool.' Murphy suggested they are a way to make private industry dependent on the president the same way he has tried to make law firms and universities dependent on him. Industries and companies 'will need to pledge loyalty to Trump in order to get sanctions relief. ... the tariffs are DESIGNED to create economic hardship ... so that Trump has a straight face rationale for releasing them, business by business or industry by industry. As he adjusts or grants relief, it's a win-win: the economy improves and dissent disappears.'"

Trump is also, Cox Richardson reports, fascinated with McKinley, president from 1897-1901 when high tariffs concentrated wealth in the hands of industrialists. He claims that those years -- not the Trente Glorieuses -- were the nation's wealthiest.

Senator Chris Murphy's thread in full:

"Those trying to understand the tariffs as economic policy are dangerously naive. No, the tariffs are a tool to collapse our democracy. A means to compel loyalty from every business that will need to petition Trump for relief. A thread to explain his plan and how we fight back. 

This week you will read many confused economists and political pundits who won’t understand how the tariffs make economic sense. That’s because they don’t. They aren’t designed as economic policy. The tariffs are simply a new, super dangerous political tool. You see, our founders created a President with limited and checked powers. They specifically put the power of spending and taxation in the hands of the legislature. Why? Because they watched how kings and despots used spending and taxes to control their subjects. British kings used taxation to reward loyalty and punish dissent. Our own revolution was spurred by the King’s use of heavy taxation of the colonies to punish our push for self governance. The King’s message was simple: stop protesting and I’ll stop taxing. 

Trump knows that he can weaken (and maybe destroy) democracy by using spending and taxation in the same way. He is using access to government funds to bully universities, law firms and state and local governments into loyalty pledges. Healthy democracies rely on an independent legal profession to maintain the rule of law, independent universities to guard objective truth and provide forums for dissent to authority, and independent state/local government to counterbalance a powerful federal government. 

But the private sector also plays a role to protect democracy. Independent industry has power. The tariffs are Trump’s tool to erode that independence. Now, one by one, every industry or company will need to pledge loyalty to Trump in order to get sanctions relief. What could Trump demand as part of a quiet loyalty pledge? Public shows of support from executives for all his economic policy. Contributions to his political efforts. Promises to police employees’ support for his political opposition. The tariffs are DESIGNED to create economic hardship. Why? So that Trump has a straight face rationale for releasing them, business by business or industry by industry. As he adjusts or grants relief, it’s a win-win: the economy improves and dissent disappears. And once Trump has the lawyers, colleges and industry under his thumb, it becomes very hard for the opposition to have any viable space to maneuver. 

Trump didn’t invent this strategy. It’s the playbook for democratically elected leaders who want to stay in power forever. The tariffs aren’t economic policy. They are political weapons. But as long as we see this clearly, we can stop him. Public mobilization is working. Today, a few Republicans joined Democrats to vote against one set of tariffs. The people still have the power."

I was hopeful when four republicans added their votes to a senate block of tariffs on Canadian products, but Cox Richardson ends with, "House speaker Mike Johnson is unlikely to take the measure up." There's little chance it will pass in the Republican-controlled House, but at least it overtly indicated that it's an acceptable Republican move to say no. It might have opened the door a crack for others to follow. It's very clear, and has always been clear, that Trump cares about nothing but himself.

My parents' advice when times are chaotic: "Just stand still and let it pass right on by." Don't make any big decisions, don't move your money, don't sell the house, just wait until the dust settles. And they lived through one of those depressions.

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