Ten Climate Change Items That Need Wider Reporting

Out of the frying pan, into the fire. A vaccine is here, hooray! But now let's actually take a good hard look at climate change mitigation.

This is from a thread of threads on Twitter by climate activist Ben See (9 min video from a year ago). We can't prevent a catastrophe because it's already started the tipping points. But we can slow some systems down IFF we can create a new global system that is focused on immediately getting GHGs down to zero. We're going to get some massive crop failures really soon otherwise. It's important to tell everyone, including children, the truth about the world. "One of the best ways to feel okay about this difficult moment in history is to actually take action and talk about it!"

See outlined a 10-point plan in need of reporting below. This is quoted entirely from his recent maze of posts, which is clearly cited throughout. In a nutshell, "Once the ice is gone, the Arctic Ocean will absorb more heat from the atmosphere, which will only make our climate predicament worse." . . .  Tropical Rainforests look increasingly unlikely to avoid collapse in the coming decades. . . . Food systems account for 37% of greenhouse-gas emissions. We must rethink destructive agriculture immediately. . . . Climate scientists expect 2.5- 3.5°C or even more by the 2090s (which would wipe out most species and likely put an end to organised human society. Over half of all species on the planet (which humans of course rely on for survival) will be wiped out by the 2060s without emergency action. . . . Tropics, subtropics and elsewhere will soon be hotter than the hottest heat waves of the past century, with many regions no longer able to support agriculture. . . . The world’s seed-bearing plants have been disappearing at a rate up to 500 times higher than would be expected as a result of natural forces alone. . . .  Deadly climate change heat waves will hit billions of people by the 2030s or 2040s (some literally unsurvivable without air conditioning) obliterating entire ecosystems and wiping out species. . . . This has been described as a death sentence for African countries. . . . Sea level rise is already causing havoc for some and will rapidly get worse.  

"Whatever else is happening in the world, is just chess pieces on a board compared to the effect of climate change."

1. ARCTIC SEA ICE LOSS

Arctic Sea Ice Loss by 2035 will be one of a number of threats to global food security as we approach or even exceed 2°C at which point the IPCC says agriculture will shift from being at 'moderate' to 'high' risk. Complete loss of summer Arctic sea ice by 2035 (give or take 14 years) will seriously threaten global food security by causing major polar jet stream disruption which will lead to dangerous extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere where most crops are grown. PIC 'Research into three centuries of European tree ring data found evidence of significant changes in the jet stream starting in the 1960s. The recent deviations exceeded normal variations... The result (from here): more extreme drought, flooding and heat waves.'  Dr. Louise Sime says: "We know the Arctic is undergoing significant changes as our planet warms.. The prospect of loss of sea-ice by 2035 should really be focussing all our minds on achieving a low-carbon world as soon as humanly feasible." See 'Amplified Arctic warming and mid‐latitude weather: new perspectives on emerging connections' Jennifer A. Francis Stephen J. Vavrus Judah Cohen First published: 16 May 2017 and Guarino, MV., Sime, L.C., Schröeder, D. et al. 'Sea-ice-free Arctic during the Last Interglacial supports fast future loss.' Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 928–932 (2020), and 'Rapid ice melt can accelerate droughts, heatwaves and flooding to a faster pace than most agribusiness can adapt to.' 

A recent study from a month or two back suggested 2035 as likely, with 2029 possible. Harvard's James Anderson projected 2022. Some scientists still feel the 2040s is possible/likely but few would predict later. There are signs warming is accelerating. Another recent paper confirms that summer Arctic sea ice disappearance is set for between 2020 and 2049, even with immediate emergency emissions reductions. A third very recent report shows no summer sea ice by the 2030s as likely (a 60% chance), though this is based on statistical analysis, not satellite data:"for the rest of the century and onward, it’s hard to think of anything more globally important." The Arctic - which is the fastest warming place on Earth - has already entered an unprecedented state that 'threatens global climate stability'. The loss of summer Arctic sea ice will increase powerful and highly dangerous albedo and permafrost feedbacks. "Once the ice is gone, the Arctic Ocean will absorb more heat from the atmosphere, which will only make our climate predicament worse." This comment (from a researcher working on carbon and nutrients from run-off in the Arctic Ocean) sums it up.  See also this 2013 study: 'We have investigated three approaches to predicting 21st century summer Arctic sea ice loss... Time horizons for summer sea ice loss of these three approaches turns out to be roughly 2020, 2030, and 2040 respectively. Also see 'Past evidence supports complete loss of Arctic sea ice by 2035' by British Antarctic Survey August 10, 2020. 'Polar Vortex: How the Jet Stream and Climate Change Bring on Cold Snaps' Inside Climate News Feb 2, 2018 Bob Berwyn @bberwyn

2. FORESTRY 

The ongoing destruction of Earth's forests appears to have lead us to a crucial tipping point. Tropical Rainforests look increasingly unlikely to avoid collapse in the coming decades. The Amazon Rainforest is now at a tipping point and appears increasingly unlikely to survive a combination of deforestation and climate change with a first stage of unstoppable collapse possible as soon as the early 2030s or even before. 'Amazon tipping point: Last chance for action' Thomas E. Lovejoy and Carlos Nobre Science Advances 20 Dec 2019: Vol. 5, no. 12, eaba2949 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aba2949. 'The twin pressures of deforestation and climate change on the Amazon rainforest remain a great concern. We are unlikely to know the vulnerability of the rainforest to climate change with any confidence until it is too late.' 'Tropical rainforests may be near a tipping point beyond our control. Deforestation may work like diseases: if left uncontained, it can win' Michael Graw April 9, 2018. 14 February 2018 Global patterns of tropical forest fragmentation Franziska Taubert, Rico Fischer, Jürgen Groeneveld, Sebastian Lehmann, Michael S. Müller, Edna Rödig, Thorsten Wiegand & Andreas Huth Nature volume 554, pages 519–522 (2018)  'From early 2018: 'at current rates of deforestation, tropical rainforest are only several years’ worth of deforestation away from smashing through the critical point.' (unstoppable self-collapse as inherently unstable forest fragments shrink and die). Fires could turn Amazon rainforest into a desert as human activity and climate change threaten ‘lungs of the world’. Drying out of the rainforest threatens to ignite the tree-filled habitat and convert it almost overnight into barren desert. Warning sign Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought–fire interactions Paulo Monteiro Brando, Jennifer K. Balch, Daniel C. Nepstad, Douglas C. Morton,... PNAS April 29, 2014 111 (17) 6347-6352; April 14, 2014  ‘The tipping point is here, it is now,’ top Amazon scientists warn' Shanna Hanbury Dec 20, 2019 

3. AGRICULTURE

We must rethink destructive industrial agriculture immediately. The destructive industrial agriculture of free-market and state capitalism fails to feed the world and is rapidly wiping out the insects and forests that humans depend on for survival by wrecking habitats and emitting vast quantities of greenhouse gases. 'Very high risks related to... food system instability are identified at 2°C of global warming.' Special Report on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL) August 2019 'IPCC Report Shows Food System Overhaul Needed to Save the Climate' Georgina Gustin August 8, 2019 'the entire food production system, with transportation and packaging included, accounts for as much as 37 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions.' Special Report on Climate Change and Land 2019. 

4. NET ZERO BY 2025 

There's little or no chance of avoiding profoundly catastrophic +2°C which looks very likely by 2034-2052. Negative Emissions Technologies won't work at scale. We need emergency action for zero carbon emissions by 2025-2030 (not net-zero 2050). How many journalists know that according to peer-reviewed science and the vast majority of climate scientists it's now highly unlikely we'll avoid catastrophic global warming of +2°C which will hit in the 2030s or 2040s if carbon emissions aren't slashed towards zero by 2025-29? In 2017 a series of scientific papers stated we had a 5% chance of limiting warming to 2°C, and 1% chance of keeping below 1.5°C. We may have already locked in more than 1.5°C of warming even if we magically reduced our carbon footprint to zero today. We're currently heading for profoundly catastrophic 2°C by 2034-2052 according to IPCC climate models at which point agriculture shifts from 'moderate' (now) to 'high' risk. It appears most climate scientists expect 2.5- 3.5°C or even more by the 2090s (which would wipe out most species and likely put an end to organised human society) because of feedbacks and/or insufficient action/ability to cut/capture carbon emissions. 

Reducing carbon emissions to zero by 2025-2030 (without relying on carbon capture and storage technology which almost certainly doesn't/won't work) is still possible. Published: 31 July 2017 Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely:  Adrian E. Raftery, Alec Zimmer, Peiran Liu Nature Climate Change volume 7, pages 637–641 (2017). The analysts cited in this thread tend to overlook current acceleration of global warming (see link), so I'd suggest modest mitigation would more likely lead to 2C by the 2030s/2040s rather than the 2050s/2060s if emissions are not 'slashed' by 2029. 'In a scenario of modest mitigation – where emissions remain close to current levels – the 2C threshold would be exceeded between 2038 and 2072, with a median of 2052.' We'd be fortunate if 2C didn't hit before 2050-70 without strong mitigation in my opinion. warming is likely accelerating. IPCC's 2030 target doesn't account for feedbacks Zero emissions by 2026 needed as NETs won't work. 2°C horror before 2035 is possible. What if I told you the Paris Agreement on climate change relies on technologies that scientists know DO NOT and WILL NOT WORK? Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) systems like Carbon capture and storage (CCS) and Direct air capture (DAC) put more greenhouse gases into the air than they take out, and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) would push Earth over ecological limits. 'BECCS features in more than 80% of the IPCC pathways, which means it sits at the very centre of the Paris agreement – even though it is not mentioned in the text. But there is a growing consensus among scientists that BECCS won’t work.'  The technology has never been proven at scale, and there’s no way it will appear in time to save us. Even if it did, it would require that we create plantations equivalent to three times the size of India, which would eat up 1/3 of the planet’s arable land.' This would make it impossible for us to feed the world’s population. And transforming that much land into bio-energy monoculture would trigger ecosystem collapse that could be disastrous for all of us. 

5. MASS EXTINCTION

Over half of all species on the planet (which humans of course rely on for survival) will be wiped out by the 2060s without emergency action to try to avoid 3-4°C of warming. One million species face extinction today. Over half of all species on the planet will be wiped out by the 2060s without immediate action to: *stop deforestation *slash carbon emissions to zero by 2025-2030 *end pesticide use & plastic/chemical pollution. '30% or more of these 538 species may go extinct within their transects and possibly globally. Under some climate-change scenarios, more than half of these species might be lost (55%), even after accounting for both dispersal and niche shifts.' 06 May 2019 Humans are driving one million species to extinction.  Landmark United Nations-backed report finds that agriculture is one of the biggest threats to Earth’s ecosystems. Jeff Tollefson: "there are extreme warming scenarios where 55% of the species would be lost from intact habitats. And note that deforestation also increases global warming. It is a double whammy against biodiversity."  'Scientists estimate that by mid-century, as many as 30 to 50 percent of all species could face extinction.'  

6. HEAT AFFECTING CROPS

If we approach or exceed 2°C of global warming by the 2030s, these already dire projections of extreme heat could well hit even earlier: Global warming will become so extreme in the next 20 to 60 years that average temperatures in the tropics, subtropics and elsewhere will soon be hotter than the hottest heat waves of the past century, with many regions no longer able to support agriculture. 'There is a 90% chance that average temperatures in the tropics and subtropics will be higher than the hottest heat waves of the past century... the effects could be catastrophic'. 'Historical Warnings of Future Food Insecurity with Unprecedented Seasonal Heat' David. S. Battisti1, Rosamond L. Naylor Science 09 Jan 2009: Vol. 323, Issue 5911, pp. 240-244 DOI: 10.1126/science.1164363 3. 'Dramatic impacts on agricultural productivity': Up-pointing red triangle' high probability (>90%) that growing season temperatures in the tropics and subtropics by the end of the 21st century will exceed the most extreme seasonal temperatures recorded from 1900 to 2006.' Severe impacts in the 2030s are far from inconceivable as global warming appears to be accelerating. 

7. PLANT EXTINCTIONS

Plant extinction rates are deeply disturbing. Most tree species are now in danger. The world’s seed-bearing plants have been disappearing at a rate up to 500 times higher than would be expected as a result of natural forces alone. 'Plants serve as the foundation for most terrestrial ecosystems.' 

1) 20% of all tree species face extinction 

2) another 40% are vulnerable due to deforestation & abrupt climate change 

3) if 3°C of global warming hits by 2060-2090 as scientists expect, though we may not be facing a treeless world; we'll be on the way. 

8. HEAT WAVES

The chances of deadly and even literally unsurvivable heat waves hitting major ecosystems and cities will rise dramatically from the 2030s onwards. Deadly climate change heat waves will hit billions of people by the 2030s or 2040s (some literally unsurvivable without air conditioning) obliterating entire ecosystems and wiping out species, but I guess you already know all this thanks to our unbiased, truth-telling free press? 'The incredibly simple solution to saving lives during a heatwave'. 10 Aug 2020 by Laurie Goering '3.5 billion people expected to be hit by deadly heatwaves by mid-century' An absurd headline in Naming Heat Waves. 'Deadly heat events...indicative of the continuing trend toward increasingly extreme humid heat..a major societal challenge for the coming decades' 'The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance'. Colin Raymond, Tom Matthews and Radley M. Horton Science Advances 08 May 2020: Vol. 6, no. 19, eaaw1838 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838 Extreme and potentially deadly combinations of heat & humidity.. are already happening..becoming more frequent' 'The most dangerous heat-humidity combinations are limited to small parts of the globe, but millions of people live in and near those areas.' 

9. AFRICA'S SPECIES DECLINE

We're set to hit 2°C by around 2035-2045, or even before. This has been described as a death sentence for African countries. Mass extinctions that undermine human well-being are about to occur with climate change set to obliterate more than half of Africa’s bird and mammal species within decades. Species are being wiped out 1,000 times faster than the natural rate of extinction. 'Land degradation, such as the loss of healthy soils, has now reached critical levels and threatens the livelihoods of 3.2 billion people, according to one IPBES assessment.' 27 March 2018 Top UN panel paints bleak picture of world’s ecosystems. 

10. LOSS OF GREENLAND ICE

Exceeding 1.5-2°C will have profound implications in terms of the loss of Antarctic & Greenland ice. Sea level rise is already dangerous, wrecking ecosystems and threatening island nations & major cities with near-term destruction. Since 2003, Greenland's ice sheet has lost 3.5 trillion tons of ice. 'we should expect significant ice loss and several meters of global sea level rise to persist for tens of thousands of years' That wrecks most major cities. 1-2m sea level rise by 2070? The IPCC still doesn't expect more than 1m by 2100 (hugely disruptive). But there are signs of ice collapse in Antarctica and experts are clear that between 1.5 and 6m is possible. Sea level rise is already causing havoc for some and will rapidly get worse. Sea level rise is accelerating and happening faster than expected. James Hansen says we could hit 5m within decades. Nobody knows for sure how quickly it will progress, but it will hit hard sooner rather than later. 'Greenland ice sheet faces irreversible melting' by University of Reading Jonathan M. Gregory et al, Large and irreversible future decline of the Greenland ice sheet, The Cryosphere (2020). DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-4299-2020 Down pointing backhand index. A "realistic range" of sea-level rise: "With the current global temperature level and rate of temperature increase I believe that we could get 5 to 10 feet before the end of this century" 'impacts would be truly dangerous & destabilizing' even at 3-4 feet.  'Twenty-first century sea-level rise could exceed IPCC projections for strong-warming futures' Martin Siegert Richard B. Alley Eric Rignot John Englander Robert Corell. Sea-level rise from climate change could exceed the high-end projections, scientists warn By Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf December 23, 2020.