The Danger Posed by Covid is Indeed Being Underestimated

Covid updates from Ontario and Germany were in the news yesterday. 

But first, check out this graphic of tips for staying healthy over the holidays from the Canadian Covid-19 Hazard Index, one of the most amazing grassroots organizations we've got in Canada that actually tracks and reports on current levels of risk regularly! 

Test before gatherings; mask when not eating; open windows; run a HEPA or CR box in each room, and get vaccinated. It's so simple and effective to use all the tools we have! 

Ontario's Chief Medical Officer, Kieran Moore, told CP24, in a few very long sentences full of numbers, that he's taking a vax and hand washing approach, leaving the significantly more useful tools locked in the toolbox:

"I'm sorry to say we still have significant Covid activity across Ontario, roughly 1,800 people in hospital, 100 needing intensive care, but, thankfully, 1.8 million Ontarians have come forward to get vaccinated, although we certainly want better protection for those that are over 60 or those with any underlying illness, so, if you haven't come forward yet, we still have over 3,200 pharmacy partners available for you to be vaccinated every single day heading into the holidays. It's sometimes very difficult to differentiate RSV vs influenza vs Covid, and so the basic protections that we advise about staying home when you're sick with any respiratory symptoms is important, good hand hygiene will protect you, covering your cough will protect you, as well as staying up-to-date with your immunizations. That's a real key message. A reminder that it takes roughly 10-14 days to build immunity after a vaccine, and it's very important that we try to maximize our level of protection in the coming week and ten days so that Ontarians have the safest holiday season and New Year possible. Sadly, 1.8 million Ontarians isn't enough. 60% of those over 60 haven't come forward to get immunized and yet there's roughly 800 Ontarian over 80 and 700 Ontarians over 70 in hospital today with Covid. That's a key population we need to maintain immunity against Covid. Natural immunity against the virus fades with time, and so does immunity from the vaccine, and those populations really need to stay up-to-date with their immunizations. The clinics are available, the vaccine's available, pharmacies across Ontario as well as public health agencies are prepared to immunize, and this next week is the real push to stay protected so that Ontarians don't have to spend their time in an emergency department or in the hospital over the holiday season."

He's stuck on a loop repeating the message officials sent back when they were able to convince people it's not airborne. It doesn't help that CP24 didn't ask about the missing pieces. It was more of a talk show than actual news. But I think we may be getting to a critical tipping point that enough people know it's in the air and hand hygiene won't be enough to protect anybody since the virus gets sucked directly up your nose with each breath! Staying home sick is a good idea, but most transmission happens from someone without any symptoms, so be careful even if you're around people who seem perfectly healthy. Covering your cough is also a great idea, but it won't protect you, the one coughing, from getting sick at all!! Vaccines help, but their ability to reduce transmission is minimal. 

German Health Minister Karl Lauterbach's more somber five minute update on the Long Covid situation can be seen here with English subtitles, and here's the transcript of what he said:

"The second Long Covid round table was very interesting, lasting three and a half hours. It serves as a unique forum for dialogue among scientists, researchers, and those affected by Long Covid, facilitating the exchange of ideas. There are many new findings about Long Covid. Not all of them good news. One piece of not-so-good news concerns the fact that Long Covid is actually still a problem for those who are newly infected. One estimate that has been put forward is that the risk of contracting Long Covid now, even after vaccination, is around 3%. Now, you may say, 'that's not such a big risk,' but there are tens of thousands of people who are repeatedly affected in a short period of time. And so, the Long Covid problem has not yet been solved. We have also established that there really are many subgroups of Long Covid and that we do not yet have a cure. And it was clearly pointed out that we are also dealing with problems that will challenge society as a whole because vascular diseases often occur after Long Covid. 

Throughout Europe, we are currently seeing an increased incidence of cardiovascular disease in the middle age group, from 25 to 50. This is associated with the consequences of Covid infection. We also very often find cognitive impairment in older people. And one participant pointed out that it may well be like the Spanish flu, where 20 years after the Spanish flu there was a significant increase in Parkinson's disease and probably also dementia. This is something we must pay attention to as the past infection affects how the immune system in the brain functions as well as the brain's blood vessels, potentially increasing the long-term risk of these major neurodegenerative diseases. This is why we need to conduct very intensive research. This research has played a major role. 

What is the overall assessment of the situation now? We have to be careful. Long Covid is not curable at the moment. We also know that over 40% of those who have several manifestations of Long Covid, for example five or more, still have symptoms after two years, so it doesn't seem to heal spontaneously. We also know that those whose symptoms are more pronounced at the beginning are less likely to heal. So some of what we know from the demographics of Long Covid has been confirmed, and we now know more precisely which mechanisms in the brain, but also in the blood vessels and the immune system, are responsible for this. 

At this point, I can only say the following - this is particularly important to me: First of all, Long Covid is a disease that stays with us and that we cannot yet cure. And we are seeing an increasing number of cases as the waves of infection continue to affect us. Secondly, Covid is not a cold - with a cold you don't usually see any long-term effects. You don't see any changes in the blood vessels. You don't usually see an autoimmune disease developing. You also don't usually see neurological inflammation - these things that we all see with Long Covid. Therefore, one should not assume that a Covid infection is just a common cold. It can affect brain tissue and the vascular system, and we still lack an effective treatment, making these studies crucial. Significantly, we know that the risk of Long Covid decreases when you're infected by having been vaccinated. That's why it's concerning that only 3 million people have been vaccinated with the new, adapted vaccine. That is a very bad result. Please protect yourself from severe infections. Please protect yourself from Long Covid. 

Currently, the danger posed by Covid is indeed being underestimated. Nothing is worse than infecting someone at Christmas who then becomes seriously ill and may not fully recover."

People are praising Lauterbach for being a straight-shooter about the long term risks of this trajectory, but he also doesn't mention that N95s can significantly help reduce transmission or that ventilating and filtering indoor air everywhere is a project we need to get behind. And both he and Moore focus mainly on older people even though cases in children are rising the fastest.

But at least he's not smiling when he gives the bad news. 

If they really want to improve vaccination rates, maybe then need to offer incentives to people like they used to. Re-organizing my bookshelves, I happened upon a clipping in a book from almost 25 years ago (saved for what's on the other side), that says nursing homes run "annual contests with prizes awarded to the nursing home with the highest participation rate. . . . The government prefers to focus on voluntary compliance and runs an extensive education campaign each year." 

Education campaigns!! Just imagine!