The New Impaired Driving Issue

We're having a rash of car accidents near me.

On a few posts, a left turn on a red in front of a school bus and a collision with a building, I referred to that recent Lancet study as possibly pointing to the cause: 

"19.4% of people who've had Covid and recovered (not officially Long Covid) show signs of SEVERE impairment in brain functioning. I expect we'll see more of this. Buckle up for safety, and keep your brain alive with an N95." 

(The study lists them as not having Long Covid, with more than half of Long Covid suffers having severe impairment, but, really, they just don't count as having it for the study because their other symptoms cleared up.)

Yalom's Gift

I recently binge-watched all of Group, a show inspired by a novel by Irvin Yalom, The Schopenhauer Cure. So I revisited Yalom's non-fiction to see how closely the series aligns to his actual practices.

The Gift of Therapy is a fascinating read from 2017 in which Yalom dives openly into his existential psychotherapy practice, explaining the four givens that affect how we think, feel and act that need to be explored at depth: death, isolation, meaning of life, and freedom (xvii). In the introduction, he jumps right into death denial revealed through a belief in personal specialness (xiii). Our current culture of selfies is likely rife with this! An existential perspective is best for clients who despair from "a confrontation with harsh facts of the human condition" (xvi). We didn't see much of this type of discussion in the show. In fact, the therapist didn't talk much at all beyond reminding the group to be honest and forthcoming.

On Group Therapy 

Yalom clarifies the distinction between group therapy and individual therapy in that group is more useful when "patients fall into despair because of their inability to develop and sustain gratifying interpersonal relationships." He offers two instructive points: a just-right structure to alleviate anxiety yet not miss potential revelations if turn-taking is too regulated, and the importance of individual summaries at the end of session recognizing that each person has a different experience of what happened. Yalom also writes and shares his own summaries of each session to group members to maintain continuity from one session to the next.

N95s Reduce the Risk

There are more studies coming out that show that N95s and fresh air help in schools, and we're still not going to act on them! 

A pre-print just came out yesterday that studied university classrooms and the way students interacted, and concluded, 

"Due to high-population density, frequent close contact, possible poor ventilation, university classrooms are vulnerable for transmission of respiratory infectious diseases. . . . When all students are wearing N95 respirators, the infection risk could be reduced by 96%." 

They also found that increased fresh air can decrease exposure by 81% and that cutting occupancy rate in half and spreading seating out can decrease exposure by 62%. 

Yet universities still demand in-person attendance without any useful mitigations in place.  

Climate Memes

I know weather is different from climate, but it feels like April outside today. 

All the snow's melting (at least we got some snow after a very green Christmas), and I started peeling off layers as I walked. 

Leon Simons (the "gentleman" climate scientist, not the Snowfall character) created the meme above. When it was criticized, he wrote:

"Some thought my meme wasn't accurate enough (it's a meme, not a peer reviewed paper). What about this one?"

A recent study he co-authored indicates that we're entering uncharted territory. Here are some graphs similar to ones that many of us have been seeing and maybe trying to ignore. It shows just how strikingly anomalous this past year has been:

More on Covid and the Brain

A new study further confirms cognitive decline after Covid.

The study weeded out depression and other issues in people with Long Covid or Post-Covid Conditions (PCC) from the effects of Covid-induced brain damage to find,

"The present study reported a significant psychomotor slowing in individuals diagnosed with PCC. Importantly, this cannot be attributed to poor global cognition, fatigue, mental health-related symptoms, or speed-accuracy trade-off. Additionally, the data indicate that this impairment does not improve over time."

Eric Topol made a simple chart to show the comparison between people without Covid (age-matched healthy individuals), those who have had Covid but not Long Covid/PCC, and those with Long Covid/PCC.

Peak Advancement

Measles cases are on the rise because of lower vaccination rates. It's one of the most contagious diseases out there, but that's still not going to budge policy.

An article in yesterday's Guardian explains that we're actually less prepared to cope with any viral activity now than we were in 2019. We've lost capacity to work with viruses! The guy in charge of the UK's vaccine taskforce, Dr. Clive Dix, said there's been a "'complete demise' of work to ensure the UK was better equipped with vaccines." He told the government his recommendations and was more than ignored:

"There were activities already going on that were stopped. . . . The UK also drove vaccine manufacturers away by treating them so poorly. . . . What we've seen is a whole list of incompetent decisions."

He also talks about concern with reliance on mRNA vaccines which need to chase after each specific strain, and are always behind the curve. We have better options, but McKinsey's in bed with Pfizer and Moderna here, so we might not ever get a chance to access them.

It's almost as if we refuse to advance any further. Have we peaked as a species?? Did we get so clever that we're witnessing the downward trend in the willingness to implement care for the public? I often think about the chimp wars the way some men apparently think of the Roman Empire. The chiimps seemed to hit a specific population density or just had too many alpha males, and they turned on each other, taking their own numbers down by half within four years. Maybe that's us right now, willing to let people die by more passive means that protects everyone from ever taking responsibility for anything.

We Need Policy Based on Evidence, not Vibes

Survival of the fittest doesn't mean the strongest survive, it means whomever can best adapt to the conditions of life will survive. 

Adapting doesn't mean tolerating what's happening and ignoring it; it means changing when the conditions of life change. So, in a pandemic, it means changing the way we live in order to avoid getting this virus as much as possible. A super easy way to adapt is to wear an N95 whenever leaving the house. With climate, we can adapt by slowing the system, like by cycling or taking the bus instead of driving a car. 

Unfortunately policy creators have other plans. According to Dr. Jennifer Grant of the BC CDC,  

Our Fragile Democracy

The Financial Times posted a video with Margaret Atwood discussing democracy. It's just 6 minutes, and the illustrations (from Jamie Macdonald) really add to it.

She asks if democracy is fragile or resilient, and points out that we might find out as more climate change effects hit closer to home. I like the video - it's short and sweet and might wake people up to the idea that democracy can be lost if we don't work to protect it. But I don't love it. I have some caveats.

Covid's Immune Response Suppression

For many, Covid seems milder now, closer to a regular flu, but yet another new study suggests otherwise.

I like this analogy from Tern to help explain a recent study from Nature Microbiology. 

"Do you know why it can be a bad sign that an acute covid infection seems more mild? 🔥👉Covid evolved TO SUPPRESS YOUR INITIAL RESPONSE TO INFECTION 😮 I'm going to try to explain this really important concept. 

So when Omicron turned up, the initial or 'acute' stage of infection seemed to be 'milder', but that wasn't because your body was handling it better. It was because Omicron was switching off your body's ability to respond. 😮 When you encounter an invasive pathogen like a virus or bacteria, your body responds, but your first response is generic. It's not tailored to the infection. It's the Innate Immune Response. Like you call 999 or 911 and some police turn up whether it's a fire or crime or medical emergency. And you can tell there's been an incident because there's all these sirens and flashing lights and emergency services vehicles.

Grand Theft Immunity

T. Ryan Gregory asks us to consider the possibility that repeated infection is rolling the dice that leads to Long Covid, which causes immune damage:

"If we're insisting on using the rhetoric of fiscal metaphors, "immunity theft" can be small and brief (petty immunity theft) all the way to severe and long-term (grand immunity theft). It all adds to negative effects on public health. Even if Covid infection caused grand immunity theft "only" in patients with Long Covid and only caused petty immunity theft for a short period in others, that is still a LOT more susceptibility to other infections overall. And that's the best case.

A much worse case is that damage of repeated infections is cumulative, or risk of severe effects is higher (or just even equal) with each infection. We don't know, because this is a new virus. But there are very good reasons to take this risk seriously. Let's be clear. "It's only a temporary reduction of immune function, which other viruses do too" and "It's only a serious issue in people with Long Covid" are terrible arguments for doing nothing. 

Lab Leak Theory Has Backing

A Freedom of Information request by reporter Emily Kopp is now pointing to the lab leak being more likely than previously thought. 

From Richard Ebright:

"An order line for restriction endonuclease BsmBl--and no other restriction endonuclease--in a draft of EcoHealth's 2018 DEFUSE proposal is equivalent to a smoking gun. There is no--zero--remaining room for reasonable doubt that EcoHealth and associates caused the pandemic. Full draft of EcoHealth's 2018 DEFUSE proposal. The four years of lies by EcoHealth and its associates need to end now."

Okay, so, wha...??? Luckily Kashif Pirzada explained it:

"The gist is that there was a grant proposal to DARPA (the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) preceding the pandemic to create a new virus based on SARS1 but with additional properties to study in the lab. DARPA rejected the proposal, but the allegation is that some scientists in China and/or the US may have gone ahead with the research anyway. [He later clarified] They were screening other coronaviruses against SARS1 to find similar viruses, but were not using SARS1 itself.

The Senate Committee Hearing Addressing Long Covid

It's a funny disconnect between Twitter and everywhere else. Yesterday everyone I know online was glued to the Senate hearings. If you weren't one of them, here's the gist:

You can watch the whole thing here. These are just the highlights that stood out to me.

Long Covid patients, parents of patients, and medical professions gave testimony to the Senate, calling for a moonshot action to match the urgency of the problem. That is, we need to use all available resources and technology to find a solution. Right now there is NO medical process to help Long Covid sufferers. About a third of people with Covid end up with Long Covid, and half of them have symptoms similar to ME-CFS. The more Covid infections you get, the greater your chance of getting Long Covid. Until we have treatment, all we have is prevention, which means N95s. The only way to avoid getting Long Covid is to avoid getting Covid.

Elderly Activism

Fiona Atkinson, retired teacher, gave a couple of MPs a lesson that they refused to learn:

This is a video that was on the news in October, but then hit TikTok yesterday, so is just now being spread on social media. Funny how that works.

The interviewers are also MPs, something you don't see much of here (except that weird Ford Nation show), and they asked about grey haired protesters. As someone with a few grey hairs sneaking in the mix, I've noticed for years that most of the protesters at marches and rallies are older. They young make the news, but the old make the numbers. I've been one of the youngest ones in the group my whole life - even still! MP McVey ask if it's about having time or wanting a legacy, but Fiona just stays on course that it's about caring about children. They're hoping for a fluff piece about a little old lady full of piss and vinegar, and Fiona kept it on track to be about the science of climate change. 

At the end, McVey suggests that Fiona's problem is with the timeline she proposes. I don't think McVey understands what's going on in the world right now! 

They're Going Full Orwell: Sickness is Health

Lots of misinformation out there still. 

On Vaccinations

We know that vaccinations help reduce severity of Covid to keep people out of the hospital, and we know their effectiveness wanes after a few months so boosters are needed at least every six months. In Ontario, they've decided the next shot will be for over 65 and immunocompromised only, but the CBC spun it like this:

"Too many people need serious medical care for flu, Covid when we can prevent it, WHO says. The National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI) released guidance on offering an additional dose of Covid-19 vaccines in the spring for people at high risk of severe illness from the pandemic virus."

See what they did there? They made it seem like the next booster of XBB coming in six month will be given in addition to the one people are getting right now for certain people, as an extra, as if those in the know haven't been scrambling to get vaccinated every six months already. An alternative media explanation could look like this:

"Don't expect to get another vaccination despite how well they can help keep you out of the hospital! The NACI has decided to restrict the spring booster to only about 20% of the population despite vaccine protection waning within months. It's unclear if the vaccines on offer right now will be the last that are accessible by the general public."

The Answer is Less Virus

It's not nearly as deadly in the near term as the Spanish Flu, which took out 5% of the population, or the Black Death, which wiped out half of Londoners, but there are other changes in our lives that could make Covid more of a risk overall:

We might have relaxed with Covid knowing that it appears to cause fatalities in just one in a thousand people (about 7 million out of over 7 billion, although some places suggest it's at least four times as high). But T. Ryan Gregory explains why that's little comfort:

"Just a reminder that the following are unprecedented in all of human history and pre-history:
* 8 billion hosts.
* Global travel.
* Older population thanks to long lifespans.
* Repeated infections up to several times per year.
* Extremely dense populations, mostly indoors. 

Let 'er Rip Means Let THEM R.I.P.

 A few people have been commenting on the current "death by semantics", or what Orwell called "doublespeak."

I used that image just in October, but it's too on-the-nose not to use it again here.

T. Ryan Gregory wrote,

"Death by semantics. It's spread in the air, but it's not airborne. It's a major global health risk but not an emergency. It's still a pandemic but not the emergency phase of a pandemic. It's a variant of interest but not a variant of concern."

Teaching with Covid in Class

Is there a better way to do school during an ongoing, quite possibly never-ending pandemic AND with climate crisis coming home to roost? 

Christina Virgil, on TikTok discussed the problem with schools making attendance their highest priority, and highlighted the sentiments of Jim the Hermit:

"Thing is, education does matter, but then so does staying healthy and alive. So this is another reason why 'let Covid rip' can't work as a strategy. We're producing a generation that will be either poorly educated because they didn't go to school or disabled because they did."

Except, of course, for those wealthy enough to be able to use private schools that enlist all possible mitigations or keep their children home with a private tutor. That generational line will be just fine.

It seems likely that we'll have ongoing waves of new variants for some time. Demanding that kids go to school sick seems like the rock bottom worst option. Absolutely we have to stop transmission in schools. 100 million percent! I wrote about that a couple months ago: "Give all the kids and staff N95s and clean the air so everyone is safer in the building and then just watch the "absenteeism" plummet!" 

Compare teacher absences to other fields. It's not just kids getting sick!!

But just in case we don't do that - or don't do it well, and kids keep getting sick with a disease that can cause lifelong disability, maybe we need to re-design teaching to openly acknowledge that we're living during a pandemic and climate change. 

Spread the Word, Not the Virus

We've been behind the curve on Covid mitigations. At this point, we should be able to see the error in removing masks, right?!

When the wastewater data and/or hospitalization rates are low but STARTING to rise, that's when we need masks to be mandated. Instead, we wait until hospitals are overflowing to suggest maybe, if it's not too much trouble, we could put them on. And, as soon as cases start to decline, we take them off again, which makes cases rise again, ad infinitum. At the very least you'd think hospitals could keep them on permanently. 

Chesterfield Royal Hospital in England got trounced after making this statement:

"Clinical update: Masks - Recently we re-introduced mask wearing for everyone in clinical areas. We are pleased to say that we have had no outbreaks during this time and sickness and respiratory illness rates have now dropped significantly. This reduction means that we are now ceasing the requirements to wear masks in clinical areas."

It's getting harder and harder to tell reality from parody anymore:

Covid Basics in Just Five Minutes

There's a TikTok making the rounds that says everything I've been writing here in just five minutes!

It took some cajoling to watch it all the way through because the camera movement is a little bothersome, but it's definitely worth a listen. And, of course, here's the transcript in full with some of my addendums and links. 

Mawd (@mudflapbrokentire) said,

"So...the elephant in the room... Covid. Don't dissociate! Don't look away! I know you're about to, but you need to listen to this. I know it's difficult to listen to things about Covid right now. I know it's hard, but this is pressing. 

I know it's difficult to continue to listen about Covid if you have not been taking precautions, if you've not been wearing a mask. It's hard to hear about the ways in which you may have put yourself in danger [or your parents or your kids], but we are in one of the biggest Covid surges of all time, and you need to be taking precautions. 

The Best Prime Minister We Never Had

There are few politicians that I gush over, but Ed Broadbent is one of them. We lost one of the good ones.

I don't like him because he's NDP - there are others in that party who wouldn't get my vote - but because he's principled. I'm even a member of the Broadbent Institute. He would have turned 88 in March. 

When he left politics to care for his wife back in 2006, The Globe and Mail wrote this about his character:

"Farewell, Honest Ed, the best prime minister Canada never had. In an era of contemptuous, mean-spirited public discourse, Mr. Broadbent is an oxymoron--a decent Canadian politician. . . . In his goodbye speech to teh Commons in May, Mr. Broadbent said, 'I have been here for the great debates of my time--on the Constitution; on the national energy program; on the War Measures Act; on the recognition of Japanese Canadians, their place in history and our unpleasant, to put it euphemistically, treatment of them historically. Many debates went to the root of what this country is all about.' He also played his part int he abolition of capital punishment, the great abortion clashes and the recognition of same-sex marriage. . . . He is leaving office without the slightest whiff of scandal. . . . Although 75% of his constituents in Oshawa were for the death penalty, Mr. Broadbent voted for abolition. To sway fellow MPs, he sent each a copy of Albert Camus's passionate 1957 essay, 'Reflections on the Guillotine.' . . . He is convinced that MMPR [mixed member proportional representation] would also civilize a loutish, testosterone-dominated Parliament."

Calling the debates of 2006 "contemptuous, mean-spirited public discourse" seems cute by our standards which have fallen so far so fast. What would have been absolutely shocking back then is now commonplace, greeted with eye-rolls rather than reprimands: rage-farming, supporting the convoy that disturbed or harmed so many lives in Ottawa, intentionally obfuscating facts, and questioning the value of spending money to care for people. Looking back at the things Broadbent did and the way he interacted with people gives us a marker to work towards. 

Catherine McKenna shared this quote of his:

"To be humane, societies must be democratic - and, to be democratic, every person must be afforded the economic and social rights necessary for their individual flourishing. On their own, political and civil freedoms are insufficient in the realization of that goal."

Of course I have to include what may be the most cringe-inducing 60 seconds of your day today. He ran and won in 1968 and then quit in 1988. He was persuaded to run again by Jack Layton in 2004, and here's part of his campaign. He won with this!

I warned you!

Vaccines are Still Part of the Solution

 The XBB booster can help keep you out of the hospital! Why don't we understand that?

From Prof Raywat Deonandan, Epidemiologist & Research Chair at the University of Ottawa:

"There are many cognitive barriers preventing many people from understanding Covid and vaccine science. There are three I want to highlight today.

1) Inability to Appreciate Exponential Growth:  By the time you see it, it's already here. The magic of compound interest can make you rich, bury you in debt, or overwhelm your hospitals. Accept that no one has a "feel" for it and instead trust the objective math. Do you get exponential growth? If I invest a single dollar into investment fund that doubles my money every three days, how long until I'm a millionaire? The answer is 60 days. If this surprises you, you're not alone. It underlines how we all suffer from this cognitive deficiency. [For a great exponential growth explanation, check out David Suzuki comparing bacteria in a test tube to the number of people on the planet.]

2) Separating Individual from Population Risk: A 1% fatality rate sounds minuscule for the individual. But for a population, it can be crippling. If one million people commuting to work today had a 1% chance of dying, that's 10,000 people suddenly dead. It's a big deal.

3) Inability to Accept Uncertainty:  Current Covid booster jab has 60% efficacy against hospitalization. 'But my uncle was jabbed and he got Covid and is in the ICU!' Yeah, 60% is not 100%. It won't keep everyone out of the hospital. But it will keep *most* people out."

I often wonder why I typically understand these three when so many really struggle to understand them. I think it's from being raised by two physics/math profs who would randomly explain this stuff and correct any errors in thinking at the dinner table. 

What's most curious to me is that we all know that no birth control is 100%, but we still use it, trusting the odds, or, if we're really smart, using two kinds at once (condoms and the pill). But many refuse to use the vaccine unless it's 100% effective. A vaccine that prevents hospitalization 60% (or 76% from this study) of the time is a vaccine that works to help reduce severity of symptoms. And getting vaccinated means you have a much better chance of not ending up in the hospital. Who doesn't want to reduce their chance of breathing through a tube shoved down their throat??

A New Vaccine Study is Giving Me Hope!

 Amazing news about a new vaccine methodology!

Eric Topol gave a brief rundown of the vaccine and highlighted the study:

"Engineered secretory IgA antibodies vs Omicron (BA,1, BA.2, BA.5) were 25 to 75-fold more potent than shots (->IgG) for neutralization. A single nasal spray dose prevented infections in the mouse model."

From the study:

"We have previously suggested that an insuffiicent mucosal immunoglobulin A (IgA) response induced by teh mRNA vaccines is associated with a surge in breakthrough infections. Here, we further show that the intramuscular mRNA and/or inactivated vaccines cannot sufficiently boost the mucosal secretory Iga response in unifected individuals, particularly against the Omicron variant. We thus engineered and charactterized recombinant monomeric, dimeric, and secretory IgA1 antibodies . . . showed a higher neutralizing activity against different variants of concern  . . . and neutralized the Omicron lineages BA.1, BA.2, and BA.4/5 with a 25- to 75-fold increase in potency . . . a single intranasal dose of the dimeric IgA DXP-604 conferred prophylactic and therapeutic protection against Omicron BA.5 . . . thereby providing an alternative tool for combating immune evaasion by the current circulating subvariants and, potentially, future VOCs."

And then, of course, the ever-helpful Jeff Gilchrist did a deep dive of the study and a video of it and put it all in simple language for the rest of us with some screenshots from the video:

It's Airborne, and It Can Cause an Immune Deficiency

Let's look at the claim that Covid should not be compared to AIDS or referred to as "Airborne AIDS".

One concern about comparing the two is that it makes Covid seem more frightening than it might actually be in a maximizing stance, overplaying the dangers, which could then lead people to turn a deaf ear as it sometimes does when anti-drug campaigns put pot and crack in the same camp. Lots of viruses affect the immune system without the comparison being made. However I think people comparing it aren't just looking at the immune system similarity, but also how it hibernates and then comes back to be even more devastating.

Another concern about comparing is from the other end, that Covid does so much more than deplete the immune system. That's just one of its many tricks.

What we don't know - and likely won't know for another decade or so - is if it ends up being as deadly later on. For people suffering from Long Covid, or really for anyone who ever got Covid (since it doesn't appear to clear the body), the comparison is terrifying. Two of my three kids have had Covid once. The idea that it's possible they have a condition that could have horrific effects that sudden strikes them makes me want to spend more time with them and make their lives as enjoyable as possible in case they're struck short. And, really, that possibility that our kids might not make it home after we kiss them good-bye in the morning is always there, but we really don't like thinking about it! That longterm prospect also makes me unwavering in my advocacy for N95s. 

And isn't it better to be safe than sorry?

Livable Basic Income Bill

If it's possible to ensure that everyone has the necessary conditions of live, sign me up!

I watched a video on the Pacific Gyre years ago. This post isn't about all the horrible garbage in the ocean, but about the documentarians who made the film. They had never been on a ship for a lengthy time before. This wasn't a cruise ship, but a much smaller boat, and the expectation was all hands on deck when the water starts coming over the sides. 

When they started their weeks-long journey, a couple of them were sick for days before they "got their sea legs" and were able to manage the constant motion.

But something they didn't expect came at the very end. As they got off the boat, back on solid ground, they had to readjust to the ground being relatively still. 

We all expect a new situation to take some adjustment, but we forget that we need to manage a change back to what we had.  

Of course this has to do with Covid, sort of!

Can a Slingshot Down this Goliath?

I read Andreas Malm's book, How to Blow Up a Pipeline a few months ago, then watched the movie, and then was reminded of it all again by Abigail Thorn's latest Philosophy Tube video about being plagiarized by a man.

Thorn explains how subtle sexism led to free labour in the home. Even today, women get the lion's share of household chores, even if they're working the same or more hours outside the home, through "Social Reproduction" - the reproduction of beliefs that enables the continuation of existing power structures, which go so far as to  make up "facts" about a group of people in order to further their exploitation, for instance, by propagating the notion that women are better suited for this type of work. I once dated a guy who, when I suggested he do dishes more often, insisted, "But you're better at doing dishes." This is a version of learned helplessness that serves to reinforce the status quo and keep some men firmly on the couch with their feet up. 

But Thorn further explains a bump in the road that happens when society accepts people who are trans: 

"If Mrs. Mansley can become Mr. Mansley, then the idea of an essential female nature starts to look a little bit shakey. If Burt can become Berta and be happier for it, then the idea that women are inferior also starts to look shaky. If they can both become Mx. Mansley, nonbinary partners in loving communions, then who the fuck is gonna work at the Chrysler dealership?"

I thought a discussion of Locke might come out of all this because he exposed this essentialist specialization of roles bullshit with respect to the questionable inborn ability of the royal class at the time of King Charles II and Oliver Cromwell. His epistemology, that we're all a blank slate from birth, affected his politics: there's nothing inherently special about royalty, and we should vote on the best leaders! He wrote anonymously knowing what a ruckus that would cause!! Now we're in the same situation but instead of the monarchy exploiting the peasant's labour, we're looking at a shift in men's exploitation of women's labour.

But she doesn't go that far down that particular road.

She brings up Malm's book to relate the fight against climate change to the fight against patriarchy. For both, we've been told for decades to spread the word and raise awareness, but WE ALL KNOW already!! We know that people are exploited and that the climate is being destroyed. As long as people can benefit from pretending they don't know this and that more education is all that's necessary, then there will always be people pushing the stories that tell us it's all okay. But we know it's not, and we need to make some noise. Of course, the same could be said for the Covid situation. Denial is a hell of a drug! 

Covid Won't Go Away On Its Own

I'm feeling a bit frantic today (even more than usual) as it's two days before school opens again, and wastewater indications show we're really in the thick of it in my part of the world:

Across Ontario, we've hit the third highest number of daily hospital admissions since this pandemic started, and it's still rising. 

And schools are doing nothing to prevent the spread. Absolutely nothing beyond the bare minimum of mechanical ventilation. Washing hands and coughing into your elbow does fuck all to stop an airborne virus. We've got, "zero mitigations in the middle of a well documented mass disabling event" (from Themme Fatale below). No encouragement of masks in class, no CR boxes allowed, no windows opened because kids can't learn if they're cold, and not even any education on what Covid does to the body, how additional cases accumulate and make it so much more likely they'll get Long Covid, except in rooms with rare teachers willing to ignore the rules that increase the likelihood of harm to children. If you've got kids in school, please do what you can to try to get them to be that kid who wears a mask. Maybe your little one can be a trendsetter!!

McKinsey's Effect on Public Health

Almost two years ago, the Canadian government published a Covid response plan that's largely vague and useless. Who benefits from that?

Canadian Public Health Response Plan

The 3rd edition of the guide was published in March 2022, and it appears to be the most recent edition. They outline the "worst case scenario," and it's pretty much what we're living through right this minute: a large wave with a peak of prolonged duration, concurrent with other respiratory pathogens, with a new variant of concern that has immune escape properties that reduce vaccine effectiveness at a time where people are reluctant to get vaccinated, and a shortage of health care providers. Check, check, and check! 

So when do public health measure kick in??

Can We Get Some Leadership Here?

Hopefully more people will start paying attention to the dangers of Covid and wear a simple N95 to protect themselves and others now that JN.1 seems to be in the news more. But leadership would help.

The concern with JN.1 is that the "variant appears to have an increased affinity for lung tissue, potentially leading to more severe cases of pneumonia compared to earlier strains. . . . Monitoring symptoms such as persistent cough, difficulty breathing, and fever is crucial, as timely intervention can help prevent the progression to severe pneumonia." But the article just advocates for more vaccinations, without mentioning prevention through respirators beyond "wear masks in crowded places or when required." That type of message is almost worse than just not mentioning masks at all, as it convinces people they're safe in a room with just a few people, when it can only takes one person across the room who appears perfectly healthy to exhale in order to get this variant if you're in there without a mask on. Or you could be the person spreading it. 

But definitely get vaccinated. Gregory Travis graphed disease fatalities in school-aged children against vaccination status to find an inverse correlation: "In other words, The more you vaccinate your children, the fewer of them that die."

On top of the continued pandemic with an even more transmissible variant, Ontario is suffering a critical nursing shortage, delaying surgeries, with many patients waiting in hallways to be seen, and many emergency departments being closed. "As the health care crisis rages unabated across the country, it is nurses who are holding our health systems together through grit, determination and a shocking amount of overtime. . . . Research shows that fatigue has effects similar to alcohol intoxication. . . . Alarmingly, there are no regulatory limits to the hours a nurse can work continuously. "

Yikes!

David Christopher posted, 

"I try to stay measured when talking about SARS-CoV-2. However, after what I've seen in one of the busiest hospitals on the planet and personally experienced the last four years I am extremely worried about our future. This virus can infect us 2, 3, 4, 5 × a year and it is airborne. It can persist, replicate and mutate for months, perhaps even years in our organs, brain and bone marrow. It is constantly mutating and staying ahead of current vaccines, our therapeutics are very limited and both do very little if nothing to prevent long covid. The damage done by convincing most of the general public that this virus is mild or harmless for all but the most vulnerable among us is irreversible. How many mild or asymptomatic infections are causing silent or unnoticed damage that will show up months or years from now? 

I've seen what this virus does both in the acute phase and for months after when looking at thousands upon thousands of laboratory test results the last four years. It attacks every organ, including the brain and circulatory system. Oncology patients are becoming more fragile. Diabetics are struggling to keep their A1C levels down. The number of cardiac patients has exploded. More and more patients in renal failure are going on dialysis. Abnormal hepatic function test numbers are skyrocketing. Lymphopenia, thrombocytopenia and abnormal coags are ⏫. In summary, this virus has become a Trojan horse that most of society ignores. Even most of our medical institutions want to normalize it like influenza where a yearly vaccine is all you need. The push to go back to 2019 has largely succeeded at the expense of our future." 

In 1918, people didn't just wait for the flu to run its course; they fought hard against continued waves of the Spanish Flu despite having no vaccination. A big component of that success was ventilation, which included running classrooms outside all winter long. In my board, opening a window a crack was a concern because, according to my admin, "Kids can't learn when they're cold." We've chosen immediate comfort over long term survival. In my current university, there is nothing in place for people who want to avoid getting Covid. Nothing was done except to pretend it ended. Classes start Monday with full knowledge that we are in one of the worst peaks of the pandemic, and nothing is happening in schools except minimizing. Teachers still can't bring in their own CR boxes. Most people aren't masked. The comms has been a nightmare leading to many many preventable deaths. The death rate further increased for kids 5-19 in 2023. Vaccinations help reduce severity, but too few are being vaccinated (only 15%).

We need a big move, right now, to get more people wearing N95s in all public places, especially places people have to be: schools, healthcare, public transportation, grocery stores. At the very least we should make it possible for anyone to buy a loaf of bread without contracting a fatal disease! I've been in arguments with people who are all or nothing about this -- that allowing unmasked dining or bars means it will still spread, and that's true. (And yes, some people are even more extreme than I am about all this!!) But legislating masks everywhere again will be met with far too much vitriol and rage. At least legislate them in public buildings and transportation that can't be avoided. Let the few up in arms off the hook with a note, and everyone else in masks will protect them from illness. N95s work, but they work much better if more people wear them. I'm not hopeful that things will change voluntarily despite 7 million deaths and an unknowable amount of disability from it all. 

***

COVID BASICS: (1-3 from Dr. Joe Vipond):

"1. Covid is predominantly airborne. [It can cross a room in minutes and linger for hours.]

2. Over 50% of transmission is from asymptomatic people. [They feel perfectly healthy!!]

3. Long Covid is real and impacts a substantial number of people." And...

4. Vaccines help reduce severity of cases, but can't eliminate transmission and wane in effectiveness within months because Covid mutates so fast (because of all the spread!).

5.  N95s trap Covid using inertial impaction, diffusion, interception, and electrostatic attraction. They really work!!

6. Covid's the #3 killer in Canada, and we don't know how many people it has disabled. Avoid being one of them. There is no treatment, only prevention. Be wise with N95s! 

Is Canada Okay?

 Dr. Mike Moffatt explained the six economic problems Canadians should worry about.

He starts with red tape stopping things that would benefit us, a lack of state capacity, overlapping jurisdictions that allow things to slip through or remain undone, use of temporary foreign workers, risk aversion, and demographics. Below is all from Moffatt, saved for later reference:

"Canada overall is in great shape. Most countries would trade our problems for theirs in a heartbeat. This list of six isn't about any order of government or party. They're larger. More structural. this isn't meant to be exhaustive. Here we go:

Bernie, #PodSaveJon, and the Rest of Us

 On Thursday, Bernie Sanders tweeted about having Covid, and this happened:

Favreau got slammed for this comment, and explained his intentions on Friday,

"Just to follow up: the brand of person I was referring to is someone who tells people to fuck off if they choose to work from home while sick. I don't find that persuasive, I find it unhinged. 

Long Covid is real, tragic, and deserves more attention (I had a post-Covid condition myself - not fun). Covid is still dangerous for a lot of people, especially older and immunocompromised. If you get even a mild case and feel too sick to work from home, you absolutely shouldn't have to. But advocacy for any of these issues isn't coming on this platform to swear at strangers from perfectly reasonable statements and actions. It's counterproductive and absurd and I won't pretend otherwise. People suffering deserve better advocacy than this shit."

It's not a bad explanation, except "swear at strangers" chooses to ignore that this wasn't a random person talking about working from home, it's a senior US senator. He forgets that both of them have extraordinary power compared to the rest of us. Three others added further notable concerns. I'm saving them here because they each make important points.

Covid is Finally a Concern!

Maria Van Kerkhove, of the World Health Organization, is worried about Covid. If she's worried, then the shit has really hit the fan. 

Van Kerkhove is well known to have said, over and over, that Covid-19 is not airborne so masks aren't necessary despite it being known to be airborne by January 2020. There's a compilation video of her near the bottom of this post. Some mark September 2023 as the very first time she acknowledged that it IS in fact airborne!! She's less well known for being pivotal in the virus being called Covid-19 instead of SARS2 due to the negative connotation of SARS. She's been a minimizer from the get go.  Then something changed. It didn't go away; it got a lot worse.

On December 30th, she tweeted:

"JN.1 continues to rise in detection, but what matters to you is that Covid-19 is circulating in ALL countries. You CAN protect yourself from infection and severe disease. Mask, ventilate, test, treat, vaccinate: boost every 6-12 months depending on your risk group."

Telling people to wear a mask is absolutely huge for her!! I'm not surprised she advises boosters at 6-12 months instead of the 3-6 months recommended by studies that show how quickly we lose protection, but it's one of the best messages I've seen from the WHO.

Films and Shows of 2023: Speed Reviews

This year was another Covid mess so a great time for watching movies and shows from a variety of streaming services. These are in no particular order, and this is just what I remember seeing this year! Some are linked to longer discussions, and I highlighted a few that are not to be missed! I was a trustee at the start of this year! How was that not years ago? But my time as a grad student required some more mindless stuff to keep me awake enough to read so many many textbooks. 

Movies:
Past Lives - loved it! - excellent shots and characters - so beautiful 
All the Light We Cannot See - good moral dilemma stuff in WWII
Astroid City - Wes Anderson - typical brilliant stuff -- right up my alley
The Holdovers - excellent characterizations - students and prof stuck at school for Christmas
Dream Scenario - Nick Cage in a nightmare scenario - really interesting concept
Anatomy of a Fall - trial of a mother accused of murder and how it affects her son
NYAD - enjoyable film on marathon swimming - it was inspiriting in the task and friendship
Stillwater - engaging, plot twisty
Leave the World Behind - not a fan because I didn't care about any of the characters 
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar - nostalgic and delightful short film
The Half of It - cute coming of age story
Oppenheimer - so compelling; went by quickly despite the length
Barbie - so close to being excellent; rocked the dance numbers, set design, and clothes
Air - about marketing Nike Air shoes, but it was actually pretty good
A Good Person - drug addiction, kinda dull
Cocaine Bear - surprisingly funny
The Policeman - lovely story
The Whale - excellent, beautiful film 
Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret - nope - I hoped it would be nostalgic, but was just boring 
Mother Night (1996) - very good Vonnegut film about a writer in WWII
Dead End (1937) - excellent - love the old ones
Point Break (1991) - finally saw it because of Hot Fuzz - light, enjoyable undercover cop stuff
Heat (1995) - excellent
The Swimmer (1968) - possibly even more disturbing now with the old school interactions 
The Thing (1982) - classic horror 
The Ritual - weird and scary!