A Most Dangerous Place

More evidence that schools drive transmission of a virus that has long term effects on multiple organ systems, including the brain.  

This is entirely from Dr. Malgorzata Gasperowicz:

"If someone looking at this graph dares to claim that in-person schools don't substantially contribute to SARS2 spread and 'simply just reflect transmission in community,' she/he they are an intellectual equivalent of flat earthers.

During summer holidays (in-person school off) spread was driven by young adults, followed by older kids and mid-age adults. Despite being 100% unvaccinated, elementary school kids and small children were relatively protected from infections. Schools reopening changed it.

More slides on in-person schools and how they related to SARS2 spread dynamics in Alberta. TLDR: In-person schools reopen: spread accelerates (Rt goes up). In-person schools close: spread slows down (Rt goes down, sometimes dramatically shifting below 1). 

From Arijit Chakravarty and coauthors: (preprint went up in the fall 2020 just when the schools started reopening): 

"In the long shadow of our best intentions: Model-based assessment of the consequences of school reopening during the Covid-19 pandemic."

A supporting piece of information backing up the modeling in the above paper that basically predicted this: Timing of school opening and closing vs Covid case counts. From Arijit Chakravarty:

Cases go down immediately after masks introduction in primary schools in Ireland:

Half term break in UK (schools closed) --> cases go down (October 2021): 

Similar effect as in the first tweet. Fall 2021. Opening primary schools without protections --> massive increase in cases in under 15 age group. Notice the effect of half-term break (last week of October). 

England Fall-Winter 2020: schoolchildren are the most infected age group:

England, Fall 2021. Elementary school children drive the spread:

UK, Fall 2021. Good questions below. Context: they already had Alpha variant in the UK. Instead of containing/controlling it, they mass-amplified it in their schools and 'exported' to the World, including Canada. 

Review by Laura White, Ellie Murray, and Arijit Chakravarty: The role of schools in driving SARS-CoV-2 transmission.