Sunday, May 10, 2020

We're Getting Re-opened in the Morning!

I'm picturing Alfred Doolittle singing that title.

Here's a rundown of my facebook page, where information mainly comes in images, saved here for the memories of what it was like the day before Ontario re-opened for business. Remember, just because you CAN go shopping again, doesn't mean you SHOULD!

According to some experts, people are relaxing way too soon!
"It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. . . . If you don't solve the biology, the economy won't recover. . . . Successful Infection = Exposure to Virus x Time [a single infected cough is about the same as an hour near someone infected just breathing or 5 minutes of them talking - and avoid public bathrooms] . . . The majority of community-acquired transmissions occur from people without any symptoms. You can be shedding the virus into the environment for up to 5 days before symptoms begin. . . . The biggest outbreaks are in prisons, religious ceremonies [weddings and funerals], and workplaces. . . . Any environment that is enclosed, with poor air circulation and high density of people, spells trouble. [He also specifically mentions restaurants, birthday parties, indoor sports, stores, and public transportation, but somehow misses long term care homes.] You need to look at your environment and make judgments. How many people are here, how much airflow is there around me, and how long will I be in this environment."

Check out this guy's video on Canada's first 100 days: Canada isn't flattening, and we're not nearly in a downslope yet; we're nowhere near over the hump!! New cases are still rising, and 85% of cases are from Ontario and Quebec. 93% of deaths are in Ontario and Quebec. He looks at excess deaths near the end and how much better - dramatically better - Norway is doing with a full lockdown compared to Sweden. Over the previous week, Canada had the biggest gains - a 25% increase in cases, compared to just a 20% increase in the U.S. This site also shows Canada as being one of the countries that's in the "needs to take action" section, instead of the more desirable "beating it" or "nearly there" sections.

If we forget history, we're doomed to repeat it:

From this article about the CDC guidelines,
The center laid out the criteria for states to reference before they ease restrictions, but not all states adopted them. The criteria includes a 14-day decline in cases, the ability to contact trace, a health system that can safely care for patients including enough protective gear for health care workers, and enough rapid diagnostic testing. . . . The message to county residents: 'Just because you can do something, doesn't mean you should.
And this guy says we should be tracking deaths, not cases, since case data are inaccurate since so few people are tested, so we MUST look at trajectories based on deaths. It takes 3 weeks from first symptoms to death, at the outside, so nothing should open up until AFTER we have 3 straight weeks of deaths in the single digits. That indicates that there have been no more new cases in the area. So, in Ontario, we're at over 40 deaths/day, so we're looking at AT LEAST, another 4-6 weeks of lockdown - if we get the numbers down and IF we're smart about it! I'm not sure why it's hard to find a graph showing daily deaths in Ontario, so I made one myself last Tuesday. We're not in that sweet spot yet, folks. I don't like the look of that trendline, either!!

I'm very worried that this concern below, in the U.S., is happening in Ontario as well:

But, the government can't officially open the economy IF the public doesn't buy into it. Tracking data show that the economy actually shut down before any orders were given as people started social distancing instinctively from fear of getting this new virus.

And then there's the anti-maskers - often, for some reason, also gun nuts:

And the rebuttal by Sanjay M. Udoshi:
"Kevin thinks he’s a badass tough guy. Kevin shoots at paper with his Glock. I can start a subclavian line and intubate Kevin in under 30 seconds. I know how to crack open Kevin’s chest and restart his heart with my bare hands. I read. I help people. I’m not a whiny little bastard. I’m the badass tough guy. Not Kevin."
And more anti-maskers:

And more rebuttals:

And my explanation for the non-philosophy types in the crowd: Typically the problem is to kill 5 people or 1, and we're asked to consider how much responsibility we have for killing one if we divert the train. It's a conundrum! BUT this is clarifying that we're currently making a choice to kill 5 elderly people OR wear a mask at the store, and people are flummoxed by this very simple option.

And here's the only thing that makes sense for law officials to do if you're not wearing a mask:

There is, however, a concern about masks leading to risk-taking behaviour instead of adding to all the other social distancing behaviours we should be adopting! We have to do ALL of it!!
“It’s like with [football] helmets and concussions. You think they would protect people, but there is some data that people are more reckless when they think they’re protected. This is maybe something similar. . . . There are a lot of people who don’t want to believe something, who won’t believe it until they see it and feel its impact on themselves. . . . Different people choose to treat masks more casually, or the virus more casually, for different reasons. Some don’t want to change, some want the economy to support a political persuasion, some have a machismo, some people might be 22 and it’s their senior year of college, and they are going to go to spring break no matter what. Each of these types of people would require a different type of intervention."
And the only message that might get through to some people:

And Siobhan Roberts writes about our likely trajectory:
"It’s going to be a matter of managing it over months to a couple of years. It’s not a matter of getting past the peak, as some people seem to believe. A single round of social distancing — closing schools and workplaces, limiting the sizes of gatherings, lockdowns of varying intensities and durations — will not be sufficient in the long term. . . . We can change the course of the pandemic — with our behavior, by balancing and coordinating psychological, sociological, economic and political factors. . . . we must be prepared for at least another 18 to 24 months of significant Covid-19 activity, with hot spots popping up periodically in diverse geographic areas. . . . Social distancing is turned “on” when the number of Covid-19 cases reaches a certain prevalence in the population — for instance, 35 cases per 10,000 monitored with widespread testing. It is turned “off” when cases drop to a lower threshold, perhaps 5 cases per 10,000. Because critical cases that require hospitalization lag behind the general prevalence, this strategy aims to prevent the health care system from being overwhelmed. . . . What is clear overall is that a one-time social distancing effort will not be sufficient to control the epidemic in the long term, and that it will take a long time to reach herd immunity."
And many people are starting to recognize problems with capitalism in general, which is heartening:

But not quite enough. Here's some Marx, written after watching the revolutions of 1848:

Remember, it doesn't have to be like this. We've just gotten used to a system that does more harm than good:

So stay out of enclosed spaces as much as you can, wear a mask when you're around other people, keep social distancing, and petition the government to STOP re-opening businesses before the stats are low enough that it's safe!! People who can't afford to say "No" to their bosses should not be seen as expendable for the sake of the economy!! And then... 


The Disaffected Lib said...

Marie, I responded to your comment on my blog by asking if you had mulled over the idea of early retirement yet. This is really starting to grind, especially the lunatic fringe that emerge like cicadas.

Me? Thanks to my only recently discovered Viking ancestry, I have a genetic mutation creating an iron overload that played hell with my innards before it was detected. When the lockdown arrived I had been giving a pint of blood every 2 weeks, over 2 gallons in all. That got the iron levels down but testing and treatment have been interrupted while this pandemic works its way through the healthcare system.

My doctor says I have to treat myself as a very high risk candidate for this virus. So it's all masks and gloves for me. I've even got those fancy N99 respirator masks that effectively filter out even viruses. Fortunately I only have to take care of myself - and my hound. I get most necessities delivered (one grocery store even offers a liquor run) but I have the kit when it is necessary to wander out into the real world.

We're pretty lucky out here. People seem extremely cooperative and the infection rate on the island is quite low. I sometimes think I'm rehearsing for a future life as a recluse.

You might want to check out Andrew Nikiforuk's take on the clash of pandemic and neoliberalism in The Tyee. It's an eye-opener.

Marie Snyder said...

Mound, my comments have all gone to spam lately!

I still have 2 years left, officially. I think I'll have to hold on. I'm so sorry to hear about your condition. Stay safe out there!